To stay in this division I think to be safe 48 points would be a realistic target.
Last season Ashton finished 10th on 48 points and Leek went down in in the third botton place on 44 points. Amazingly just 4 points separated 10 clubs from 10th down to 19th position in the league!
On the basis we have 14 points from 19 games, there are 23 left to play and a required 34 points (to get to 48).
34 points looks something like;
10 Wins
4 Draws
9 Defeats
We have 12 games at home to play and 11 away.
So how do we make sure of survival in this league?
The main way to ensure survival is to treat every game between now and the end of the season as a cup final, a must win game. If we get beat then we have to dust ourselves down and go into the next game with the confidence and enthusiasm to win it. If we doubt ourselves then we will fail.
To get 10 wins we need to make sure we pick up some wins at home (probably winning at least 7 or 8 of the 12 remaining games). It goes without saying that we have to get behind the lads until the final whistle in every game (as you would in a cup final). In particular the next 4 or 5 home games are crucial.
We showed fight yesterday and played Bradford off the pitch, we need to do the same from next Saturday onwards.
This is one way it might be done;
A Ilkeston Town - Draw 1pt
H Boston United - Win 3pts
A Cammell Laird - Draw 1pt
H Bradford Park Avenue - Win 3pts
A Leigh Genesis - Win 3pts
H Ashton United - Win 3pts
H Matlock Town - Win 3pts
A Marine - Lose
H FC United of Manchester - Lose
A Eastwood Town - Lose
H Buxton - Win 3pts
A Boston United - Lose
H Kendal Town - Lose
A Frickley Athletic - Draw 1pt
H North Ferriby United - Win 3pts
A Matlock Town - Lose
H Whitby Town - Win 3pts
A Whitby Town - Draw 1pt
H Nantwich Town - Win 3pts
H Prescot Cables - Win 3pts
A Ashton United - Lose
A Worksop Town - Win 3pts
H Guiseley - Lose
Anyone agree or disagree (apart from Danny obviously) with my maths?
Indeed WHS and if I thought all 23 were cast iron predictions I would be typing them into Bet 365’s website and not this forum!
Clearly predicting where we get the points from will be wrong, however the emphasis is that we have a limited number of games and therefore a finite number of points to play for (69 to be precise).
The issue therefore being that we need around half these number of points (34).
To achieve this we need to be 100% behind the team if they are going to get an average of 1.5 points a game between now and the end of the season.
The support yesterday at Bradford helped to get the win. Confidence on and of the pitch is a two way process that transmits between both parties. Hence every game between now and the end of the season is a cup final in terms of the approach by the players…and the fans.
Good post Rabbit.
It gives us a realistic appraisal of what’s required.
I hope we can go on a bit of a winning run now to get accumulating those points.
WHS you’ve missed the point about them not being actual predictions but don’t miss the point that it’s fans at matches (home and away) that can make the difference.
See you all at Ilkeston:)
Any team scrapping for points at the bottom is goign to rely on a partisan atmosphere at home. Unfortunately with the open spaces at WP we rarely seem to create a sufficient atmosphere unless we have 450+ packed in.
I think from the above it’s pretty clear that we are going to need to start picking up wins at home, so as fans we need to decide on how we are going to help the team acheive this.
I think that we need to designate an area where as manay Witton fans as possible can cram themselves in to. We need to be packed like sardines in a confined space rather than spread all around 3 sides of the ground. Whether this be the back row of the stand like yeterday, or the more traditional area behind the goal i don’t know. But at the minute we arent creating any sort of atmosphere, so we need to come up with a better plan of action.
40 people made a damn sight more noise yesterday then 200 normally do at WP, so it CAN be done if we want to.
Good suggestion Robbo, everyone getting together behind the attacking goal each half would be my suggestion. The stand tends to be occupied by the kids/families/directors and older supporters, however a bigger hardcore following behind the goal would help increase the atmosphere.
I think we have to win 7 or 8 games minimum at home and therefore if people are really bothered about supporting the team then we need to fully encourage the team for the entire 90 minutes they are on the pitch.
Rabbit has probably just cursed the rest of our season by predicting where the points come from (which included a run of 4 consecutive wins??? Big prediction 4 a team trying 2 survive). But i agree we do need 2 be up 4 every game like its a cup final. And more importantly when each game comes we need 2 dismiss from our minds where we are in the league and how desperately we need the points, and just focus on playing football.
[quote]
40 people made a damn sight more noise yesterday then 200 normally do at WP, so it CAN be done if we want to.
Any suggestions??[/quote]
Why not adopt the ‘away day’ approach for some home games?
Meet in the Penny Black for a snifter or two to moisten and relax the vocal cords and build up the camaraderie. I seem to recall some of you doing this last season.
I think some people (me included) need some encouragement to overcome any shyness about getting chants and songs going. By the same token if a group pipes up I do and try to join in, desperately hoping none of you can tell how awful a singer I am!
As a cheerleader I nominate Eli; he really is very good at it.
3 games into The Rabbit’s Target for the season and we are 2pts adrift and back on the bottom. We are playing better now but the games over Christmas are going to IMO dictate where we will be come the end of season. The spirit of the team and supporters( as demonstrated at Cammell Laird ) is good so we need to keep it going. Supporters bunching together behind our dugout and making plenty of noise clearly lifted the players and management team so lets repeat this at all the away games.
The team is undoubtedly stronger than was the case a few weeks ago. The new players introduced are superior to those that have left and seem better suited to fighting our way out of trouble. It is also the case that our existing players are performing to a higher standard as a result. For instance Pritch now seems to have confidence in his fellow centre half and on Friday put in the kind of performance we were used to seeing all last season.
The new gaffer has made his mark and I’m impressed with the changes he’s made. We just need to find a way of playing at home to win. Away we can soak up some pressure and hit teams on the break; Neil Black is excellent in this regard. Come to think of it Scolari at Chelsea has a similar situation…but from the other end of the table.
I agree that the crowd can play a part both home and away and I pledge to do my bit!
Without it wishing to be half empty…its effectvley 6 points with the goal difference compared to those outside the relegation zone who also have several games in hand on us.
No one updating, maybe because things are actually going better. I believe we are now just one point off Rabbits target and we are down to lose on Saturday so if we getting anything out of the game we will be well and truly back on track. As Tonee would say KFC !
Your home form has to improve or your in trouble! As for the Vics most fans are condenmed to the fact that were going down. Most fans like me are more worried about keeping the club afloat than relegation from the BSP. The club cannot sustain there position in the BSP with a hardcore fanbase of 500-600. Them gates are not enough to support the rent required for the Marston’s Arena.
